Stock Check: Phillies Standings, Wild Card, and the Schedule Down the Stretch

Let’s take stock of where things stand, because the Phillies are officially in hang-on-for-dear-life territory. They sit at 62-56, went 5-5 over their last 10, and are 8.5 games behind the NL East-leading Braves at 70-47.

The division isn’t mathematically dead, but let’s be real, the primary focus now is the Wild Card, and after two straight losses to the Blue Jays, the Phillies are gripping that final spot with white knuckles.

Here’s how crowded it’s gotten.

The Cubs hold the top Wild Card spot at 68-50. The Diamondbacks are second at 62-56. And the Phillies are right there in the final spot at 62-56, with the Padres just a game back of both of them.

The Marlins sit three games back, and lurking right behind them are the Cardinals, Pirates, Nationals, and Reds. That’s a whole lot of teams packed into a small space, which means every single game matters and there’s zero room to keep coughing up winnable ones.

Phillies hanging on to the third and final NL Wild Card spot:

Elsewhere in the league, the Brewers are running away with it at 73-44 atop the NL Central, and the Dodgers, despite going 3-7 over their last 10, still lead the NL West. The competition at the top of the National League is fierce, and the Phillies are nowhere near that tier right now.

Last Week’s Verdict: Feast or Get Exposed

Last week I said the Phillies needed to feast or get exposed with such an easy August schedule and to their credit, up until these two straight losses to the Blue Jays, that’s exactly what they did. They took care of business against the teams they were supposed to beat in the Orioles and Nationals.

Here’s what stings about those two Blue Jays losses.

They should have been wins. Both of them. A lousy bullpen and untimely hitting screwed the Phillies on back-to-back nights, turning games they controlled into gut-punch losses.

That’s the difference between comfortably padding the Wild Card lead and clinging to it, and it’s the exact reason the margin feels so thin right now. You cannot give games away to a sub-.500 Blue Jays team when the schedule is handing you a soft stretch.

The good news is the rest of August remains very winnable.

Phillies August Schedule (Beginning of August Records)

• Orioles (54-56)
• Nationals (55-56)
• Blue Jays (51-69) x1
• Cardinals (54-56) x3
• Twins (56-55) x3
• Marlins (56-55) x3
• Cardinals (54-56) x3
• Mariners (53-58) x3
• Angels (42-68) x3
• Diamondbacks (58-52) x1

That’s a lineup of mostly mediocre-to-bad teams, and the Phillies have to absolutely feast on it. Every one of these series is a chance to stack wins and build a cushion, and there’s no excuse not to, because what’s coming next is a nightmare.

September is going to be a bloodbath for the Phillies

Here’s why the urgency is sky-high. Take a look at the September schedule:

• Diamondbacks (62-57) x2
• Braves (70-47) x4
• Astros (60-58) x3
• Braves (70-47) x3
• Nationals (58-61) x3
• Mets (51-67) x3
• Brewers (73-44) x3
• Rays (70-46) x3

That is a gauntlet, brother.

Seven games against the Braves. Three against the red-hot Brewers. Three against the Rays. The Astros, the Diamondbacks, a bunch of postseason-caliber competition packed into the most important month of the season. This is the polar opposite of the August slate, and it’s going to test this team in every possible way.

Two Paths, and the Phillies Choose Which One

So this is the crossroads. The math is simple. The Phillies have to stack wins NOW, in August, against the beatable teams, to build enough of a cushion to survive a September that’s going to be a war. In an ideal world, they fatten up the record over the next few weeks, then hold their own in September against all that postseason-caliber competition, and roll into Red October playing their best baseball of the year, ready to make a three-week run.

The other path is that the Phillies slide into irrelevancy, the Wild Card spot slips away in that brutal September, and the entire city shifts its focus over to the Eagles and the Sixers, who are both a whole lot more exciting right now anyway. That’s the very real alternative if this team keeps giving away winnable games like it did against Toronto.

We’re about to find out which path the Phillies choose. The bullpen has to get right. The clutch hitting has to show up. And the wins have to start piling up immediately, because the schedule waits for no one, and September is coming fast.

Feast now or get buried later. It’s that simple. The time is now.

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