Everything you need to know about the Phillies and Braves heading into Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Tuesday

For the third time in five years, the Phillies and Braves are taking this rivalry into the postseason. Game 1 of the best-of-three Wild Card Series is Tuesday at 2 p.m. at Truist Park.

Atlanta won the NL East for the seventh time in nine seasons, and they deserve credit for that. They also won 100-plus games in both 2022 and 2023, and both years the Phillies sent them home in the Division Series. Regular season success hasn’t carried over against this team, and I don’t expect it to start now.

Game 1 Starter for the Phillies?

That’s still up in the air, and it’s the direct result of how the last week went. It was supposed to be Zack Wheeler, but he had to pitch Sunday to get the Phillies in. That leaves Don Mattingly with a few options.

Andrew Painter is the most logical choice. The rookie threw a bullpen session Sunday and would be going on normal rest. Jesús Luzardo is the other name, but he was just activated Sunday and his clean inning was his first appearance since Sept. 7, so asking him for a real start this quickly is a stretch.

Aaron Nola is also in the mix after throwing just 21 pitches on short rest Saturday. My money is on Painter getting the ball with Luzardo and Nola ready to back him up, which gives Mattingly a lot of length to work with in one game.

The Chris Sale “Problem”

Sale had one of the best regular seasons a Braves pitcher has put together. His 2.16 ERA ranked third in the majors, and he owned the Phillies with a 2.08 ERA over four starts and 26 innings. The 2024 NL Cy Young winner hasn’t pitched in the postseason since 2021, and he’s clearly excited to get back.

Here’s the part Atlanta doesn’t want to talk about.

Outside of closing out the 2018 World Series for Boston by striking out all three Dodgers he faced in the ninth inning of Game 6, October hasn’t been good to Sale. He has a 7.24 ERA in seven career postseason starts and hasn’t made it through five innings in four of them. The regular season version of Sale is a nightmare. The postseason version has been very hittable, and the Phillies need to make him work early.

Projected Lineup for the Phillies

Mattingly has moved this lineup around a lot this past week trying to find anything that works, so there’s no guarantee this is what we see Tuesday.

1. Trea Turner, SS
2. Kyle Schwarber, DH
3. Bryce Harper, RF
4. Alec Bohm, 1B
5. Bryson Stott, 2B
6. Edmundo Sosa, 3B
7. Bryan De La Cruz, LF
8. Derek Hill, CF
9. J.T. Realmuto, C

There’s no sugarcoating the September numbers.

The Phillies were tied for 29th in baseball in batting average (.226) and slugging (.356), and 29th in OPS (.660) and runs per game (3.71).

That’s not a playoff offense.

The good news is that Sunday looked like a real breakout, with Realmuto snapping his skid and Harper finally squaring one up. If that carries over to Tuesday, this lineup is too talented to stay quiet.

Zack Wheeler shoves as the Phillies offense comes alive in Game 162 to secure a spot in the postseason >>

Projected Braves Lineup:

1. Drake Baldwin, DH
2. Ronald Acuña Jr., RF
3. Matt Olson, 1B
4. Michael Harris II, CF
5. Mauricio Dubón, SS
6. Ozzie Albies, 2B
7. Mike Yastrzemski, LF
8. Austin Riley, 3B
9. Sean Murphy, C

Obviously, Acuña is the guy to worry about. He finished the season hot and put up a 1.377 OPS in seven September games against the Phillies. The rest of this lineup hasn’t been nearly as scary.

Baldwin and Dubón were the only other Braves with an OPS of .750 or better in the final month. Baldwin, Dubón and Harris have all been at .850 or better since Sept. 14, but Albies has been under .500 over that same stretch.

Riley hit two homers in the final week, but overall the last two weeks were a struggle for him. This is not the lineup that bullied everyone in 2023.

Here’s The Bullpens…

The Phillies bullpen has been a problem all season, and it got worse in September. Outside of closer Jhoan Duran, Mattingly has leaned on Alex McFarlane, Jonathan Bowlan and José Alvarado late in games.

The difference in October is that the starters who aren’t starting become relievers. Wheeler is available out of the pen after pitching Sunday, and depending on how the rotation shakes out, Luzardo and Painter could be too. Having Wheeler as a bullpen weapon in a best of three is a real advantage, and Mattingly needs to use it.

Atlanta’s bullpen could be strong if Robert Suarez is right. He’s pitched only twice in the last three months, but his outings against the Reds and Marlins this past week convinced the Braves his right elbow is good enough for high-leverage work.

Pair a healthy Suarez with Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee and Didier Fuentes, and the back end is legit. AJ Smith-Shawver and Dylan Dodd would handle the middle innings. That’s a lot riding on an elbow that barely pitched all summer.

Injuries:

Luis Arraez badly sprained his left ankle Thursday. Mattingly said Sunday it had improved to the point where Arraez could hypothetically pinch-hit, but he hasn’t swung a bat since the injury, and it looks almost certain he won’t play the field.

Bowlan has been out more than a week with a right calf strain, and it’s unclear if he’ll be ready for Game 1. Losing him would thin out a bullpen that doesn’t have much room to spare.

On the Atlanta side, Lane Thomas likely won’t be ready because of a left intercostal strain, which forces the Braves to shuffle left field between Dubón and Yastrzemski.

Starters Bryce Elder (arthroscopic right knee surgery), Reynaldo López (right shoulder inflammation) and Martín Pérez (lower back discomfort) could be options in later rounds if the Braves get there.

Phillies Dominate the Braves in the Postseason…

The Phillies have won their last three postseason series against Atlanta, taking the 1993 NLCS along with the 2022 and 2023 NLDS.

They’ve won 10 of the 14 games in those series, including six of the eight played this decade. The Braves had the better regular season.

The Phillies have been the better October team in this matchup every single time, and that’s the only record that matters this week.

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