Matt Swartz @Matt_Swa over at MLB Trade Rumors released his annual arbitration estimates for the Phillies this weekend.

This was an especially difficult year to project considering the shortened 60 game season left front offices and agents with only small sample sizes to make critical personnel decisions. The MLB arbitration system relies heavily on comparing players with similar statistical history to determine future salaries. But currently there is no agreement between the MLB and MLBA on how to handle projections. In short, all the uncertainty could lead to a majority of cases being decided in a hearing room, or a high number of players being released outright.

Because of this Swartz and his team decided to release 3 separate methods:

1) Model w/ actual stats from this 60-G season

2) Extrapolates counting stats to 162-G (1 HR->2.7 HR)

3) For non-1st-time elig, finds raise for 162-G season, & gives 37% of that raise

The Phillies will have to make decision on 7 players come December:

• Seranthony Dominguez – $900K / $900K / $900K
• Zach Eflin – $3.3MM / $5.5MM / $3.7MM
• Rhys Hoskins – $3.4MM / $5.5MM / $3.4MM
• Andrew Knapp – $1.2MM / $1.5MM / $1.0MM
• Adam Morgan – $1.8MM / $2.0MM / $1.7MM
• Vince Velasquez – $3.8MM / $4.8MM / $4.0MM
• Heath Hembree – $1.9MM / $2.2MM /  $1.8MM

Taking a quick look at the list, I absolutely expect the Phillies to non-tender Morgan, Velasquez and Hembree. All three project to make almost $8 million combined in 2021 and are the definition of replacement level players.

Dominguez, Eflin, Hoskins and Knapp all seem to be safe bets to be with the Phillies come opening day.

Stay with TheLibertyLine.com for any update involving the Phillies offseason.

Mandatory Credit: USA Today