The “garbage time” conundrum: when are most of Jalen Hurts stats generated?
The Eagles are now six weeks into the Nick Sirianni/Jalen Hurts era, and there are perhaps more questions now than there were before the season.
Some believe that Hurts has shown enough to warrant a longer leash with an improved roster; others are already clamoring for Malik Willis or Carson Strong in next year’s draft. And of course, there are those still holding out hope for Deshaun Watson — who’s saga is nowhere near a resolution.
Every snap Hurts takes this season is being thoroughly analyzed by not only the fans but the organization itself. The Eagles went into 2021 with the mindset that they need to make one of two decisions moving forward:
- Do you use your pending cap space and draft picks to build around Jalen Hurts?
- Do you use those same assets to acquire a new quarterback via draft or trade?
Hurts has made his fair share of poor decisions and questionable throws early on, but the on-field production is there. Throughout the first six weeks of the season, Hurts has accumulated over 1800 total yards and 13 TDs, but is 28th in the league in QBR.
One of the main talking points centered around Hurts has been when he generates most of his yardage. With his team trailing in most games this season, many have labeled Hurts as a ‘garbage time QB’ due to playing from behind.
So, where does the Eagles’ signal-caller accumulate most of his stats? I’ve taken the liberty of diving deeper into each scenario:
| Comp. % | Passing yards | TDs | INTs | Rushing yards | Rushing TDs | Rating | |
| Games decided by 15+ | 70.3 | 590 | 5 | 2 | 97 | 0 | 105.1 |
| Games decided by 8-14 points | 61.0 | 623 | 4 | 0 | 108 | 0 | 100.8 |
| Games decided by less than 7 points | 53.5 | 503 | 1 | 2 | 156 | 5 | 65.2 |
| Comp. % | Passing yards | TDs | INTs | Rushing yards | Rushing TDs | Rating | |
| Ahead by one score | 59.4 | 255 | 1 | 0 | 48 | 0 | 95.2 |
| Ahead by two scores | 81.8 | 95 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 133.0 |
| Behind by one score | 61.1 | 426 | 3 | 2 | 100 | 1 | 80.0 |
| Behind by two scores | 54.4 | 402 | 0 | 2 | 74 | 3 | 62.2 |
| Comp. % | Passing yards | TDs | INTs | Rushing yards | Rushing TDs | Rating | |
| Ahead | 65.1 | 350 | 2 | 0 | 73 | 0 | 105.8 |
| Tied | 63.6 | 146 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 97.9 |
| Behind | 59.9 | 1220 | 7 | 4 | 282 | 5 | 84.5 |
| Comp. % | Passing yards | TDs | INTs | Rushing yards | Rushing TDs | Rating | |
| 1st Qtr | 65.0 | 373 | 4 | 1 | 49 | 0 | 97.4 |
| 2nd Qtr | 59.7 | 456 | 1 | 1 | 61 | 0 | 81.1 |
| 3rd Qtr | 59.6 | 350 | 1 | 2 | 126 | 2 | 72.1 |
| 4th Qtr | 60.3 | 537 | 4 | 0 | 125 | 3 | 101.2 |
>> Read More: Report: Eagles are officially OUT on QB Deshaun Watson
At a glance, the data does support the “garbage time” narrative. When games are within one score, Hurts seems to be inaccurate and indecisive with the ball. The stats also show that he’s prone to running more frequently in close games.
Whether that’s by design or due to Hurts bailing on plays early is another conversation.
Nick Sirianni hasn’t done Hurts many favors with the playcalling either. The running game is virtually non-existent, with the second-year QB being their leading rusher through six weeks. Establishing some sort of identity on offense would go a long way in accurately assessing Jalen Hurts.
Jalen Hurts has accounted for 40% of Eagles rush attempts (53 of 132).
— Paul Hembekides (@PaulHembo) October 15, 2021
That would be the highest rate by any QB in a season in NFL history.
Asking much too much.
In summation, it’s much too early to come to a definitive conclusion about Hurts with just 10 NFL starts under his belt. There shouldn’t be any lofty expectations for Hurts to be a top-10 QB this year. He just has to show improvement ahead of a promising offseason.
The correct approach with Hurts is to view him through the same lens you would a rookie quarterback. If there is visual progress, the Eagles will be encouraged to build around him. If Hurts underwhelms, expect the team to be in the mix for a new quarterback next season.
I’ve watched this play from every angle multiple times and I just don’t understand. Hurts is insane. pic.twitter.com/ajYQfqPNOq
— Victor Williams (@ThePhillyPod) September 12, 2021
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