Phillies Prospective Lineup vs RHP

1. Schwarber L
2. Castellanos R
3. Harper L
4. Realmuto R
5. Hoskins R
6. Segura R
7. Didi G L
8. Herrera/Vierling L/R
9. Bohm R

Phillies Prospective Lineup vs LHP

1. Segura R
2. Realmuto R
3. Harper L
4. Castellanos R
5. Hoskins R
6. Schwarber L
7. Herrera/Vierling L/R
8. Bohm 
9. Didi G L

With the recent signings of free-agents Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber, Phillies fans are rightfully excited about a lineup projected to have some massive power. 

Even with the added flexibility, Joe Girardi will have to make difficult choices regarding the lineup. Not everyone can bat in the cleanup spot.  I fear Joe Girardi is too ‘traditional’ of a manager to apply sabermetrics into this lineup construction, but he absolutely should considering lineup flexibility will be one of the Phillies biggest advantages.

After these signings I saw some interesting lineups floating around and decided to take a closer look at the numbers to help decide what would be the most optimal order.

Schwarber & Segura leading off depending on the matchup

There’s no secret that over the past three seasons Jean Segura has failed to cement his status as the Phillies lead-off hitter. But, his career numbers show he actually has significantly lower production batting second. 

.298/.342/.440 wRC+ 108

.284/.328/.409  wRC+ 99 

Despite Segura’s lack of production batting lead-off,  he was terrific as the very first batter of the game in 2021 for the Phillies.

31 AB .387/.441/.807 OPS +134

Im having trouble coming to terms with this statistical oddity. Segura clearly struggles in his second, third, and fourth AB’s. Is batting directly behind the pitcher the reason? It is tough to be sure, but with the implementation of the DH this season, I would be willing to take a chance on Segura leading off against LHP.

Shouldn’t Kyle Schwarber be batting first?

Yes and no.

Clearly these numbers are slightly skewed because he was insanely hot for a short stretch. Even so, Schwarber’s numbers batting second were better, .312 v .297 BA and .456 vs .385 OBP.

Beyond 2021, his career numbers also support him batting in the second spot although admittedly like most sluggers, he puts up the best numbers batting fourth.

Schwarber’s career splits:

RHP – .243/.349/.532  OPS 110

LHP – .214/.324/.361.  OPS 68

Defending a .214 hitter batting leadoff is difficult, even in today’s analytic driven game. Based on the numbers, Jean Segura should get the nod against LHP and Kyle Schwarber RHP. 

Bryce Harper Should Always Bat Third 

No surprise here. The reigning NL MVP has batted in this spot for the majority of his career. Joe Girardi and Gabe Kapler have both experimented with Bryce at the top of the order, but those situations were mostly out of desperation in an attempt to spark the struggling offense. 

Hoskins should be batting 4/5/6 against both LHP and RHP.

Hoskins is stronger against RHP posting a career of OPS .913 vs 843 respectively. He is best when slotted into the fourth or fifth spot.

JT Realmuto and Nick Castellanos batting second and fourth

Despite hitting .20 points lower against LHP, Realmuto’s production is nearly the same regardless of who he is facing. In his career, his lowest totals come out of the fifth spot. The only spot 1-6 where he is average or below average in wRC+.

Without another solid option hitting second, Realmuto would actually fit in nicely against LHP. With his base-running speed, Realmuto is also decent option to lead off against lefties. In 195 career AB’s hitting leadoff, he has batted .324 and with a career high .364 OBP.

Im not worried about Castellanos near the top of the lineup as he has routinely hit second throughout his career. Casetellanos absolutely mashes LHP with a career line of .302/.354.539/wRC+135. Him or JT should bat cleanup when the matchup is right.

Like most of the Phillies lineup, the bottom of the order should be highly interchangeable based on matchup. Didi Gregorius hit a ghastly .157/.264/.292 against LHP in 2021. Unless he shows improvement coming off an injury, I don’t see how the Phillies can afford to play him everyday.

Matt Vierling and Odubel Herrera should get the nod against LHP and RHP respectively. Batting eighth or ninth is the perfect pressure-free spot for Alec Bohm to find himself again after a disastrous sophomore season.