Sixers NBA Draft Lottery: How likely are they to keep their first round draft pick?

With each passing loss, the Sixers’ season feels less about sneaking into the play-in tournament and more about praying to the basketball gods for some draft lottery luck.

After Wednesday night’s loss to the Raptors, it’s time to face reality. The Sixers probably aren’t making the play-in, and at this point, the biggest storyline is whether they’ll keep their first-round pick—or hand it over to the Oklahoma City Thunder.

So, let’s break down where things stand, what the lottery odds look like, and whether tanking the rest of the way is actually the smart move.

Can the Sixers Still Make the Play-In Tournament?

Mathematically? Yes.

Realistically? Absolutely not.

The 10th-seeded Bulls are five games ahead of Philly with just 17 games left in the season. According to Basketball Reference’s playoff probabilities model, the 76ers now have a 95.7% chance of missing the play-in tournament.

That number speaks for itself. Unless this team goes on a miracle run, this season is headed for the lottery night.

How Likely Are the Sixers to Keep Their Draft Pick?

We are dealing with a first-round pick that is top-six protected—meaning if it lands anywhere outside the top six, it goes to the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Right now, here’s where they sit in the lottery standings:

• Tied for 5th-worst record: Sixers (22-43)
• Tied for 5th-worst record: Nets (22-43)
• 7th-worst record: Raptors (23-43)

If the Sixers finish with the fifth-worst record, their chances of keeping the pick are 63.9%.

Here’s the breakdown of their lottery chances at that spot:

• No. 1 pick: 10.5%
• No. 2 pick: 10.5%
• No. 3 pick: 10.6%
• No. 4 pick: 10.5%
• No. 5 pick: 2.2%
• No. 6 pick: 19.6%

The 6th-worst record drops their chances to 45.8%, and 7th-worst makes it just 31.9%. They need to finish no better than 5th-worst to feel remotely safe.

How Do Tiebreakers Work?

If the Sixers finish tied with another team in the standings, a random drawing determines draft positioning. Philly actually won a tiebreaker last year for the 16th pick, which they used to draft Jared McCain. But they can’t rely on luck this time—it’s too risky.

The Sixers need to finish no better than 5th-worst in the standings to feel comfortable about retaining their pick.

Who Has the Easier Remaining Schedule?

A big factor in how this plays out will be strength of schedule.

Here’s how the Sixers compare to the teams right around them:

• Raptors: 38.2% opponent win percentage (Easiest schedule left in the NBA)
• Sixers: 47.1% opponent win percentage (6th-easiest remaining schedule)
• Nets: 49.6% opponent win percentage (12th-easiest schedule)

The Raptors are the team to watch because they’ve got the easiest schedule in the league. If they win a few more games than Philly down the stretch, that could push the Sixers higher in the lottery standings, which is exactly what they don’t want.

Final Thoughts: What Should the Sixers Do?

I think it’s pretty obvious, right? At this point, the smartest move is to pull the plug and fully embrace the tank.

The Sixers are in lottery limbo right now. They aren’t winning enough to make the play-in but aren’t losing enough to fully guarantee they keep their pick. Fighting for the play-in is a waste of time. The best-case scenario is sneaking into the 10th seed, just to get bounced in the first or second play-in game.

That’s not worth losing a top draft pick.

If they finish with the fifth-worst record, they’ve got a nearly 2-in-3 chance of keeping the pick. And if that happens, adding a young stud next to Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey would be way more valuable than getting stomped in the play-in.

Cooper Flagg to the Sixers? The Basketball Gods have spoken

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