Standings Update: Sixers fall apart in Miami, margin for error now razor thin

The Sixers came back from 15 down in Charlotte on Saturday with their full roster for the first time all season and won a gritty road game that felt like a statement. Then they went to Miami on Monday, led by four with under eight minutes left, and fell apart completely.

Heat 119, Sixers 109. A ten-point loss in a game they were winning late. That is the whole story. Embiid hit a three to push it to 107-103 and the door was open. Then Miami went on a 14-0 run and the Sixers stood around the three-point line doing absolutely nothing while the Heat went to work.

Tyler Herro hit back-to-back threes. Jaquez spun through the defense. Larsson banked one in. The Sixers could not score and could not stop anything for the final eight minutes of a winnable game.

Nick Nurse called a timeout, drew up a play, and nothing came out of it. George disappeared after a great first half. Same third quarter issues that have plagued this team all season gave the lead back and this time the fourth quarter comeback did not materialize.

Nick Nurse and the Sixers fall apart in the 4th, lose winnable game vs Heat 119-109 >>

Miami won the season series. The Hawks won their game Monday and stretched their lead over Philadelphia to two full games. Seven games left. Here is where things stand.

Sixers Updated Standings

• 5 — Toronto Raptors — 42-32, 6-4 L10
• 6 — Atlanta Hawks — 43-33, 8-2 L10
• 7 — Philadelphia 76ers — 41-34, 6-4 L10 ← HELLO
• 8 — Orlando Magic — 39-35, 3-7 L10
• 9 — Miami Heat — 40-36, 3-7 L10
• 10 — Charlotte Hornets — 39-36, 7-3 L10

Catching the Hawks for the sixth seed requires Philadelphia to go on a run while Atlanta stumbles and the Hawks are 8-2 in their last ten so they aren’t a team that is exactly stumbling to the finish line.

The more realistic target is Toronto at 1.5 games back. The Raptors are 6-4 in their last ten. Beatable. Below the line the Magic and Heat are each 3-7 in their last ten and fading. The play-in is the floor, not the destination.

Sixers Remaining Schedule

• Tue Apr 1 — at Wizards (~17-56 — Gimme)
• Thu Apr 3 — vs Timberwolves (44-28 — Winnable)
• Fri Apr 4 — at Pistons (54-21 — Tough)
• Sun Apr 6 — at Spurs (53-18 — Tough)
• Wed Apr 9 — at Rockets (43-27 — Competitive)
• Thu Apr 10 — at Pacers (~15-57 — Winnable)
• Sat Apr 12 — vs Bucks (29-41 — Winnable)

Wizards, Pacers, and Bucks are free wins. The Timberwolves at home is a real test but winnable with Embiid healthy. Then comes the road gauntlet. Detroit and San Antonio are likely losses. The Rockets on April 9 with this full roster is a game the Sixers can steal and that game could be the difference between a fifth seed and staying at seventh.

Revised projection is 5-2. Losses at Detroit and San Antonio. Win everything else and the Sixers finish 46-36, likely the sixth seed with a direct playoff berth and no play-in required.

Playoff Picture:

A 3-4 finish at 44-38 probably means staying at seventh and the play-in. Not a death sentence with this roster but not where you want to be. A 5-2 finish at 46-36 locks up the sixth seed and a first-round matchup with the Knicks. That is the realistic target. A 6-1 finish at 47-35 puts the fifth seed in play if Toronto stumbles.

The honest truth is that nobody in the Eastern Conference has seen this full Sixers lineup. The Pistons, Celtics, Knicks, and Cavaliers have spent all year playing against a diminished version of this team. That changes in the first round regardless of where Philadelphia is seeded.

Seven games left. The talent has returned but thee execution has been inconsistent. Start with Washington on Wednesday because that one is mandatory and work from there.

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