Sixers vs Magic: Matchup, keys, and why Wednesday night is winnable

The NBA playoff picture is set. The Sixers finished 45-37 and will host the Orlando Magic on tonight in the play-in tournament in South Philly with the seven seed on the line.

The winner faces the Celtics in the first round. Loser gets one more shot on Friday.

Is this the ideal situation? No. The perfect scenario was grabbing the six seed and drawing the Knicks in the first round, which would have been a significantly more manageable matchup than whoever comes out of the top of the East.

Magic vs Sixers tonight in South Philly

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Sixers have a real shot at winning Wednesday night so let’s break it all down.

Before getting into it, I will say what I think about the play-in tournament in general. It should not exist. Sixteen teams already make the playoffs out of 30. Now we have the Golden State Warriors potentially facing the Oklahoma City Thunder despite an enormous talent gap.

The play-in was invented to generate content and television revenue and it waters down the postseason. The Sixers are in it regardless of my feelings about it so here we go.

Why the Sixers Can Win

Tyrese Maxey is averaging 28.3 points per game, fifth in the NBA, on nearly 50 percent shooting with 4.1 rebounds, 6.6 assists, and 1.9 steals. He has shown up in the playoffs before, averaging over 20 points in his last three postseason appearances including 29.8 last year.

If you are about to tell me Paolo Banchero is better than Maxey because he grabs more rebounds, Banchero is 6-foot-10 and Maxey is 6-foot-2. Do the math.

Paul George has been around 21 points per game since returning from suspension. He brings size, defense, and the ability to keep things from completely falling apart when Maxey sits. VJ Edgecombe is a wildcard with no playoff experience but if he brings the 16 points per game and the aggression he showed in March that is a real contribution.

The last game against the Bucks, Grimes had 20, Edwards had 17, and Drummond had 12. If that bench can consistently give 15 to 20 points combined this team is functional without Embiid. It will shock me if it happens. But I will not complain if it does.

Why the Sixers Could Lose

Joel Embiid is out. That is 26.9 points, 7.7 rebounds, and a seven-foot rim protector who changes the entire defensive equation. Without him the Sixers have one player averaging over 20 points. The Magic have three. The interior defense without Embiid is a real concern against a team that lives in the paint.

The third quarter problem is also still very real. The Sixers average 27.3 points in the third quarter, 29th in the NBA. The Magic average 29.3 on the season and were putting up 34.2 in the third during their recent hot stretch. That is a matchup the Sixers consistently lose.

Why the Magic Are Beatable

They are wildly inconsistent and that is being generous. On March 29th they lost to the Toronto Raptors by 52 points and did not crack 90. On April 1st they lost by 29 to the Atlanta Hawks.

They followed a seven-game win streak with a six-game losing streak. You genuinely do not know which Orlando team is showing up on Wednesday and in a one-game elimination setting that cuts both ways.

The Sixers led the season series 2-1. Both teams finished 45-37 and the statistical differences between them across most major categories are minimal. This game is as even as any play-in matchup you could draw up.

Just Win and Advance

Win Wednesday and the Sixers face the Celtics in the first round without Embiid, which looks brutal. But if they can push that series deep enough into May there is a chance Embiid comes back and everything changes.

Lose Wednesday and win Friday and they face the Detroit Pistons, who beat the Sixers all three times they played this season. Neither path is comfortable.

The Sixers have a real shot on Wednesday. Let us start there and worry about the rest later. The Indiana Pacers were +4000 before last season and were one game away from winning the championship. As long as Philadelphia has a team in the mix I am making the claim we can win it all.

Tonight in South Philly. Let’s go.

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