Baseball Prospectus projects Phillies rotation to be among MLB’s best in 2022
Baseball Prospectus recently released their annual PECOTA rankings of starting rotations and the Phillies are projected to be among the MLB’s best. Thats music to any Phillies fan’s ears, considering it is nearly March, the players are locked-out and the club still has major questions marks at multiple positions.
Ok, but what the heck does PECOTA mean?
Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm
That sounds a whole lot like a fancy word for ANALYTICS! Each year Baseball Prospectus runs a massive simulation that is regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry. This year it’s projecting that the combination of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Zach Eflin, Ranger Suarez, and Kyle Gibson will be worth 2.0 WARP per starter. Only the Mets starters have a higher average (2.4) in the National League East and both are among the leagues best.
Here are the projections:
- Zach Wheeler 183.2 IP – 3.00 ERA
- Aaron Nola for 166 IP-2.89 ERA
- Ranger Suarez 132 IP-3.46 ERA
- Zach Eflin 106.1 IP-3.57 ERA
- Kyle Gibson 151.1 IP-4.46 ERA
Regardless of whether you believe what a computer says about the Phillies, it’s clear that the strength of the team in 2022 is going to be the starting rotation. A healthy Zach Eflin and a bounce back season from Aaron Nola could be the boost the Phillies need to end the leagues longest playoff drought.
Of course, even the best starters have to hand the ball off to a reliever at some point. And anybody who has witnessed the tire fire that is the Phillies bullpen the past two seasons has a right to be skeptical.