No amount of analytics will convince me that the Eagles made the right call in going for two instead of kicking the extra point

At the end of yesterday’s Black Friday embarrassment in South Philadelphia, the Eagles scored a touchdown with 3:10 left to cut the lead to 24–15. I’m not a math guy, but I do know that there is no such thing as a 9-point play in the NFL.

Jalen Hurts to AJ Brown cuts Eagles deficit to 9-points with 3 minutes left

Hurts to Brown for the second time today

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There never has been a 9-point play and all things considered, there never will be, which means you are looking at a two-possession game the second you see that number on the scoreboard.

That is why kicking the extra point is the only decision that makes sense. If the Eagles opted to kick the extra point and make it 24–16, the game immediately turns into a one-possession situation.

All you need at that point is a defensive stop, the ball back, a scoring drive, and a successful two-point conversion. It’s straightforward, it’s logical, and it gives your team the maximum number of realistic paths to tie the game.

It’s the right play every single time. You can argue with your couch.

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Naturally, the Eagles instead chose the exact opposite.

The Eagles chose to go for two right away, and when they failed, they stayed down nine.

They voluntarily remained in a two-possession hole with barely three minutes left. That decision instantly eliminated any chance of tying the game on the very next possession and forced them into needing an onside kick, which has succeeded ONE TIME in TWENTY-ONE attempts this season.

More math for you. That is a 4.7 percent success rate. So by going for two early and failing, the Eagles essentially chose the path that works less than five percent of the time, and they did it on purpose.

They also ripped the energy right out of their own sideline. A defense plays differently when it knows one stop keeps the season alive versus knowing it needs a stop, probably an onside kick, and then another score just to have a pulse. There is no creative game theory here. This was simply making the game harder for no reason.

Fans are attempting to justify the thought process here by saying it helps you “know earlier” how many possessions you need. I don’t understand that. You literally don’t need to risk the entire game to figure that out.

Kick the extra point and the answer is obvious, right? Now all the Eagles would need is one possession. In contrast, when your players know you have voluntarily chosen the long-shot scenario, they feel it. The the uphill climb just doubled.

Why anyone would think any other option outside of kicking the extra point to make it a one-score game is absolutely insane. Again, the Eagles could have gave themselves a fighting chance down one possession. Instead, they were left trying to recover an onside kick.

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Going for two in that situation is self-sabotage dressed up as analytics.

There is no argument for it. There is no metric that justifies it. There is no alternate universe where willingly choosing the path that succeeds less than five percent of the time is somehow the smart choice.

If someone has the math that makes that sound reasonable, I’m all ears. Right now, it looks like the Eagles took the easiest decision on the field and made it as complicated and counterproductive as possible.

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