After a 14-16 start to my 2023 NFL Playoff gambling binge on Wildcard Weekend, I’m sticking to my gut and ready to get the Divisional Round show on the road.

Despite the losing record, I am up $38.33 on $50 bets, so basically even thus far. If you think I’m making up numbers, check out my NFL Playoff bet tracker to follow my Divisional Round picks and see my past wagers.

Jaguars at Chiefs (-9.0) | O/U 53.0

Bet on Travis Kelce

This one might seem obvious as Kelce is the premier tight end in the NFL and MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ security blanket. Jacksonville’s defense ranks dead last in yards allowed to tight ends per game (68.6). Chargers’ tight end Gerald Everett had 446 receiving yards coming into the playoffs, and the Jaguars let him go off for 109 yards.

The problem is the Jaguars’ defensive scheme. Their top-graded coverage defender, Tyson Campbell, holds down the right outside cornerback spot. Their second highest-graded coverage defender, Andre Cisco, typically plays the high safety role, leaving a mediocre group of linebackers and safeties to deal with the league’s best tight end.

McKinnon thrives when the Chiefs can’t run

Jacksonville’s defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell brings the 8th-ranked run defense over the last three weeks heading into the Divisional Round, surrendering less than 100 yards on the ground. Despite their continued success, Kansas City’s run game has always been a weakness.

In the five games this season that the Chiefs failed to total 80 rushing yards, running back Jerick McKinnon was ready to step up. His pass-catching perfectly fits an Andy Reid offense, and when Big Red can’t run the ball, they call on the ninth-year veteran better known as “Jet McKinnon.”

Public Betting Numbers (1/21, afternoon)

Bets Counted: > 435,000

• % tickets on Chiefs- 47%
• % tickets on Jaguars- 53%

• % money on Chiefs- 38%
• % money on Jaguars- 62%

If you don’t know that Andy Reid is the GOAT after bye weeks, you are a brand-new football fan (which I respect), or you could argue the Earth is flat, disregarding the facts and evidence (which I don’t respect). Big Red is 22-3 in the regular season and 7-3 in the playoffs after bye weeks. More impressively, Reid’s teams are 22-13 against the spread, and it gets better in the playoffs with a 7-3 record against the spread.

JAX/KC Divisional Round Bets

• Jerick McKinnon Anytime TD (-120)
• Jerick McKinnon OVER 4.5 catches (-105)
• Travis Kelce OVER 78.5 rec yds (-115)
• Travis Kelce 2+ TDs (+400)
• Travis Etienne OVER 19.5 rec yds (-110)

Big Red IS Championship Sunday SGPs

McKinnon TD + Chiefs Win = +115

Kelce TD + Chiefs Win = +110

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Giants at Eagles (-7.5) | O/U 48.0

Eagles pass catchers will dominate Wink Martindale’s obsession with man coverage

New York’s defensive coordinator, Don “Wink” Martindale, runs a reasonably predictable coverage scheme. Martindale will bring multiple blitzes with the Giants running Cover 0 at a higher rate than most of the NFL. Given Jalen Hurts’ shoulder injury, Wink will blitz the house to test the pain tolerance of the MVP-caliber quarterback.

Even if it’s AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith at wide receiver, Martindale sticks with his default coverage of a man-to-man Cover One scheme. The Giants’ cornerbacks are not the most physical, jam-master players but excel at mirroring receivers’ routes. Starting nickel Darnay Holmes only allowed 47 yards (6.7 yards/catch) but let up a perfect seven receptions on seven targets. If DeVonta Smith lines up in the slot against Holmes, it’s an explosive play waiting to happen.

Exploit Giants’ weakness against tight ends and run game

Another team who ranks near the bottom of the league in defending tight ends is the Giants. They allow over 60 yards per game (8th worst) and 5.6 receptions per game (5th worst), letting Vikings tight end TJ Hockenson go for 10+ catches and over 100 yards in two of the Giants’ last four games. Goedert has yet to score against New York in his career, and a Divisional Round touchdown on Saturday sounds about right.

Even though Jalen Hurts had an extra week to rest his shoulder strain, I don’t expect Nick Sirianni and Shane Steichen to dial up many designed runs for the quarterback. New York’s 27th-ranked run defense will have a daunting task with Miles Sanders (4.9 yards/carry), Kenneth Gainwell (4.5), and Giants’ killer Boston Scott (4.0 yards/carry).

Public Betting Numbers (1/21, afternoon)

Bets Counted: > 300,000

• % of tickets on Giants- 57%
• % of tickets on Eagles- 43%

• % of money on Giants- 62%
• % of money on Eagles- 38%

The Vikings were the most overrated team in the playoffs and I even predicted a New York upset. Minnesota came in with injuries to key players and limped down the final stretch of the regular season. Most people have an inflated perspective of the G-Men, and the betting numbers show it. I will bet against a trendy dog (an underdog that the public is on) any day of the week, especially if it means putting money on the Birds.

NYG/PHI Divisional Round Bets

• Dallas Goedert Anytime TD (+210)
• Dallas Goedert OVER 49.5 rec yds (-125)
• DeVonta Smith OVER 64.5 rec yds (-125)
• Miles Sanders OVER 66.5 rush yds (-125)
• Boston Scott Anytime TD (+370)

GO BIRDS SGPs

Boston Scott TD + Eagles Win = +400

Dallas Goedert TD + Eagles Win = +255

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Featured Image Credit: Cooper Neill | Getty Images