Andrew Painter expected to miss 2024 season: What does this mean for his future with the Phillies?

Phillies President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski announced today on the WIP Morning Show that top-prospect Andrew Painter will likely remain out for the entirety of the 2024 MLB season.

Quick Recap on Andrew Painter…

The first sign of discomfort on Painter’s elbow came in early March after his 2023 Spring Training debut. Not wanting to take any chances, the Phillies shut Painter down with a right proximal UCL sprain just a week after the initial discomfort occurred.

At the time, the Phillies’ medical staff did not think Tommy John Surgery was necessary and that Painter’s elbow would heal naturally.

Painter didn’t pick up a baseball from the time of his injury in March until April 10.

Painter then started playing catch before progressing to bullpen sessions at the beginning of June. He was initially set to face hitting in live batting practice in early July, but instead, was sent was sent for “further evaluation” after experiencing elbow discomfort during his rehab assignment.

The Phillies organization then determined that Painter would need Tommy John Surgery and in late July, he underwent successful procedure on his right elbow in Los Angeles.

The timetable to return to play was set at 15 to 18 months.

Dombrowski on WIP Morning Show: Andrew Painter likely OUT for 2024 season

“I don’t really look for Andrew to pitch this year. I am looking towards 2025. I guess you can always be surprised, but I do not want to put that pressure on him.”

What does this mean for the 2024 Phillies? 

Honestly, Painter missing the entirety of the 2024 season was somewhat expected and I really don’t see much changing in how the Phillies approach their starting rotation this season.

Trust me, I know Twitter was really hoping the team signed Trevor Bauer after Drew posted that article this morning (sarcasm) but it’s likely the Phillies will stick with the guys they have in the starting rotation until proven otherwise.

At most, I would expect more of a late-season call up for Mick Abel or Griff McGarry, or possible an acquisition at the MLB Trade Deadline rather than anything drastic from the Phillies at the beginning of the season.

Anyways, Painter is the team’s top prospect and No. 27 overall prospect in the Major League Baseball.

Obviously, rushing the best arm back to action in an already depleted farm system doesn’t make sense for the Phillies or Painter and in doing so, could create major setbacks for the 20-year old pitcher.

Phillies Projected Starting Rotation 2024

1. Zack Wheeler
2. Aaron Nola
3. Ranger Suarez
4. Taijuan Walker
5. Christopher Sanchez
   • Abel / McGarry / Allard

Instead, as I mentioned, barring any major signings, attention will be on 2020 15th overall pick Mick Abel (22 y/o) and 2021 fifth-round pick Griff McGarry (24 y/o) to see if either of them could earn a roster spot before the season begins. 

There will likely be a competition between Sanchez, recently signed LHP Kolby Allard, as well as the two young prospects for the last spot in the Phillies’ rotation. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the bullpen as a potential home for Sanchez and or Allard either.

What does this mean for Painter’s progress? 

Being the team’s top prospect, it is highly unlikely that he will lose out on a future roster spot. Future with the team may be one of the biggest reasons not to rush his recovery and let him be back to 100% when he returns to the mound.

Important: Painter will be at most 22-years old by the time he’s looking to earn a spot in the Phillies starting rotation.

Allard signed just a one-year deal with the team, and though he is likely to be extended, Zack Wheeler currently set to hit the free agent market after this season.

The two (three if Wheeler is extended) starters that are expected to be with the team beyond the 2024 season are Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez, so the window is wide open for Painter to grab a spot when he returns from injury. 

Though Dombrowski did not close the door on a possible return in 2024 for Painter, it seems as if all sights are towards 2025.

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Mandatory Credit: Photo by David J. Phillip of AP Photo